Hit enter to search or ESC to close

logo-block
alva
Get in touch
logo-block-tablet

Tory Leadership analysis: Did Leadsom need to concede?

The Tory Leadership battle took another twist today, with Andrea Leadsom withdrawing from the race and apparently leaving the way clear for Theresa May. Pressure had been building on Leadsom over the weekend, but her position in the race was still by no means untenable.

If we look at the five-day sentiment* trends for Leadsom and May, it reflects the media headlines focused on Leadsom this weekend.

Figure 1: Five day sentiment trends for Andrea Leadsom and Theresa May*

Five day sentiment trends for Andrea Leadsom and Theresa May

Leadsom had been building momentum with the public, dominating conversations on social media and overtaking May’s sentiment trend by 12% on Thursday 7th July. However, as claims that she exaggerated her CV emerged, Leadsom’s sentiment began to dramatically fall, dropping 16% after the story broke.

The negative media analysis continued after she stated in an interview that being a mother made her a better candidate than May. By Sunday, this had led to a 23% fall in sentiment from her high point on Thursday.

However, while the drop in sentiment would appear to confirm that Leadsom was correct to quit, it is revealing that May was also affected negatively by the coverage. Rather than consolidating her position as the favourite, May’s sentiment was declining and actually running very close to Leadsom before she quit.

May’s sentiment fell 16% between Wednesday and Sunday despite keeping a relatively low profile during this period. This decline appears to be a response to the negative media coverage for Leadsom, suggesting that Leadsom retained significant external public support and may have been premature in withdrawing from the race.

As we can see from this episode, a week really can be a long time in politics, and had Leadsom remained in contention she could have had ample time to recover her position and mount a real challenge.

 

* Footnote: The methodology – how do we calculate sentiment scores?

The alva algorithm calculates sentiment scores out of 10, where a score of 5.50 is considered neutral. The algorithm takes into account the volume, influence, prominence and relevance of real-time mentions from 80,000+ news sources, more than 3m blogs and forums, 100+ social networks. A score above 6.00is considered strong, while a score below 5.00 is considered weak.

See more articles
Join our Newsletter

Be part of the Connected Intelligence community Join our Newsletter

Join our Newsletter

The rapid digitisation of the economy continues apace this week, with personal transport the latest to feel its effects. A surge in ecommerce sales paints a bleak picture for bricks and mortar businesses. Download the weekly #Covid19 report: 👉 https://t.co/CzDiw4uJjp #reputation

90% of the world’s data has been produced in the last 2 years. However, the use of social data for insights has disappointed. We investigate how to get the most out of unstructured data and transform it from a shiny object into strategic intelligence. https://t.co/6PUgO25ixO

We are hiring! We are looking for a Graduate Analyst for our London office. If you are an analytically-minded, curious, self-starter, get in touch! #alvacareers #graduateanalyst #jobs 👉 https://t.co/bSqQIbm9GS

Load More...

Be part of the Connected Intelligence community

To join our Connected Intelligence community simply complete the form below.

Sign up to alva’s Intelligence Resources, including our Daily Sector Briefings and our COVID-19 Weekly Insight Reports Subscribe now